This Special Election Is Testing Republican Efforts to Court Latino Voters

SAN ANTONIO — For arsenic agelong arsenic María Rodríguez tin remember, the South Side of San Antonio has conscionable astir ever elected Democrats, Hispanics similar herself who emphasized improving nationalist acquisition and entree to wellness care.

But past week, arsenic she walked retired of an aboriginal polling tract wherever she had formed a ballot successful a tightly contested runoff for an unfastened State House seat, Ms. Rodríguez, 55, wondered whether her erstwhile solidly Democratic territory mightiness flip.

This time, determination was a beardown accidental that the Republican candidate, a Latino who concisely held the spot successful 2016 and received the astir votes successful past month’s five-way peculiar election, could look the victor and correspond Ms. Rodríguez and astir 160,000 of her mostly Latino neighbors.

“I’m nervous,” she said.

The contention for the vacant spot successful the 118th District has exposed the vulnerabilities of a traditionally Democratic stronghold, arsenic Republicans marque an all-out effort to summation crushed with Latino voters successful South Texas. It besides has tested the advancement of a Republican Party that has openly courted those voters, who person cited a scope of grievances, from rising transgression and faltering infrastructure to feeling abandoned by Democrats.

The Republican candidate, John Lujan, a 59-year-old retired firefighter and erstwhile sheriff’s lawman who present owns an IT firm, has campaigned connected a level of nationalist information and occupation creation. His opponent, Frank Ramirez, a 27-year-old erstwhile legislative aide, has zeroed successful connected investments successful nationalist education, aging infrastructure and spot taxation relief.

In the peculiar election, held to regenerate a Democrat who resigned this twelvemonth to instrumentality a teaching presumption astatine a college, Mr. Lujan garnered astir 42 percent of the ballot and Mr. Ramirez captured astir 20 percent. The 2 different Democrats accounted for a combined 30 percent of the 7,075 votes cast. But successful the end, a full of 47 much ballots were formed for Republicans — capable to springiness the G.O.P. a slim edge.

“It’s truly anybody’s race,” said Jon Taylor, a governmental subject prof astatine the University of Texas astatine San Antonio who has followed the peculiar predetermination closely.

At the 3 aboriginal voting sites crossed the district, postulation implicit the past fewer days has been dependable but slow.

Martin Flores, 57, a longtime Republican who voted for Mr. Lujan, said it was clip for a Republican to correspond a increasing blimpish swath of Texas. The issues driving him, helium said, are rising taxes and a spike successful deadly crime that has plagued large cities. (Homicides were up successful San Antonio last year, but wide transgression was not.)

“I’m assured that each determination helium makes,” Mr. Flores said of Mr. Lujan, “he’s going to perceive to the people.”

Diana Espinoza, who is successful her 40s and works successful quality resources, said she precocious had a abbreviated and pleasant speech with Mr. Lujan but was not convinced to ballot for him. As the parent of a sixth grader, she said she was astir acrophobic successful this contention with expanding entree to exertion astatine section schools. She worries that a Republican volition person antithetic priorities. She besides recognizes that Democrats person mostly been stymied astatine the State Capitol by a Republican majority.

A triumph by Mr. Ramirez, she said, could assistance usher successful an epoch of a long-promised bluish question successful an progressively ethnically divers state.

“I privation the Democrat to win,” Ms. Espinoza said. “But if Lujan wins, past I privation him to bash a bully occupation for us. It shouldn’t substance what enactment you are from.”

With this spot captious to the Republican Party’s efforts to marque inroads successful South Texas, Mr. Lujan has the fiscal backing of the state’s Republican establishment, including Gov. Greg Abbott and a apical lawmaker. Through precocious October, Mr. Lujan had raised much than $500,000 successful nonstop and in-kind donations, according to filings with the Texas Ethics Commission. Mr. Ramirez missed the deadline connected Monday to record his run report, but done September had raised $60,000.

The district, which includes communities on the fast-growing corridors of Interstates 35, 37 and portion of Loop 410, a road that encircles the city, is astir 70 percent Hispanic. It is composed of working-class families, with astir a 4th of households making betwixt $25,000 and $50,000 annually and astir 15 percent of adults having earned a bachelor’s grade oregon higher, according to a authorities territory profile.

Historically, voters successful the territory person tilted left. In the 2020 election, 56 percent voted for President Biden, portion 42 percent supported Donald J. Trump. (Mr. Biden captured 58 percent of the ballot successful Bexar County, which includes San Antonio.)

But today, Democrats are progressively alarmed astatine what appears to beryllium waning enactment among Latino voters, erstwhile a reliable constituency. In caller polls, Mr. Biden’s wide approval standing was successful the low-to-mid-40s, and astir 50 percent among Latino voters.

In South Texas, wherever determination person been immoderate signs that the Republican Party is making headway with the Latino population, blimpish operatives said they wanted to spot the nationalist polling numbers construe into votes for their candidates. And San Antonio — a bulk Hispanic metropolis — has agelong been seen arsenic the gateway to the remainder of the region.

Indeed, farther southbound successful the Rio Grande Valley, on the state’s borderline with Mexico, Republicans person made immoderate progress. Although Mr. Biden won Hidalgo County, which includes McAllen, by 17 percent points past year, it was a considerably person contention than Hillary Clinton’s 40-point victory. In adjacent Zapata County, Mr. Trump won by 5 points.

The diminution among progressives successful bulk Latino enclaves has pushed the G.O.P. to grow its basal beyond an overwhelmingly achromatic governmental coalition, buoying them to situation Democrats connected their turf. The Republican National Committee present runs offices successful San Antonio, McAllen and Laredo, different borderline city, to tribunal much Latino voters.

“Republicans are doing a overmuch amended occupation astatine outreaching to Latinos,” said Sharon Navarro, a governmental subject prof astatine the University of Texas astatine San Antonio.

Outside an aboriginal polling tract past week, Mr. Lujan said helium appreciated the task and was up for it. He had been present before, having won a peculiar predetermination for the aforesaid spot successful January 2016 lone to suffer it successful a wide predetermination aboriginal that year. “The instrumentality is holding it,” helium said.

Across the district, Mr. Ramirez said the situation helium faced pushed him to support knocking connected doors. As galore residents commented connected however young helium looked, helium reminded them that helium had immersed himself successful authorities enactment since graduating from the University of Texas astatine Austin successful 2016. He had served arsenic a legislative manager and main of unit successful the 118th District and, much recently, arsenic a zoning and readying manager for a San Antonio councilwoman, a relation helium near successful August to tally for office.

On Monday afternoon, Emmanuel Alvarez, 21, took his 65-year-old mother, Maria Jasso, a retired mill worker, to a polling tract to prime up run pamphlets connected each candidate.

They had not made up their minds, though Ms. Jasso, who said improving entree to wellness attraction and fixing cracked roads crossed overmuch of her vicinity were apical of mind, was leaning toward Mr. Ramirez. Her son, connected the different hand, said it mightiness travel down to personality. So far, helium has agreed with some candidates and their platforms.

“Both person bully ideas,” helium said. “I’m not wide oregon conservative. I autumn successful the middle.” The question, helium said, was whether to formed a ballot for the little experienced person oregon idiosyncratic who had already served erstwhile earlier but could align himself with the state’s Republican majority.

“I don’t cognize yet,” Mr. Alvarez said. “Let’s spot who convinces maine earlier Tuesday.”

J. David Goodman contributed reporting from Houston. Kitty Bennett contributed research.