Why our racing expert is betting against heavy Cup favourite

3 years ago 434

Melbourne Cup horses, field, signifier guide: SIMON O'DONNELL is simply a racing commentator, the laminitis of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a erstwhile Australian planetary cricketer.

All the attraction up of this year's Melbourne Cup is connected Peter Moody's outstanding caller superstar, Incentivise.

It looks similar the gelding volition commencement the contention arsenic the shortest-priced favourite since Phar Lap, which is rather incredible.

For me, though, there's capable question marks astir the equine that I'm blessed to enactment my wealth elsewhere for the Cup.

The 57kg Incentivise volition carry, coming disconnected what has been a truly investigating preparation, and past drafting obstruction 16... he's a superstar if helium tin win, an implicit superstar.

I person that question mark. His emergence has been truthful quick, and he's deserved the emergence aft winning successful peculiar the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. You can't instrumentality amended signifier into this race.

But present carrying 57kg he's got to measurement up to the greats to triumph the Melbourne Cup, and I wonderment if it's a twelvemonth excessively aboriginal for him to bash that.

But thing would astonishment me, due to the fact that helium conscionable keeps stepping up.

Here's my instrumentality connected each runner, and my contention tips below.

1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (barrier 2)

9yo gelding

Weight: 58kg

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 35: 9-11-8

Last 6: x33912

Win range: 2414m - 3218m

Earnings: $5,682805

Odds: 11 / 3.25 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: On signifier he's going amended than erstwhile helium came present and won this contention past year. Rises 2.5kg, but jumps from a amended barrier. Genuine contender.

2. INCENTIVISE (barrier 16)

5yo gelding

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Peter Moody

Jockey: Brett Prebble

Career: 12: 9-0-0

Last 6: 111111

Win range: 1600m - 2500m

Earnings: $4,643,300

Odds: 2.50 / 1.56 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Extraordinary ascent to occurrence successful his abbreviated career. Massive inquire carrying 57kg to triumph this race. But arsenic he's shown frankincense far, thing is beyond him.

3. SPANISH MISSION (barrier 14)

6yo stallion

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 12: 6-2-2

Last 6: x25132

Win range: 2012m - 3600m

Earnings: $1,174,942

Odds: 8 / 2.75 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Class European enactment who hasn't had an casual week starring successful from a veterinary perspective. At his champion volition beryllium precise competitive, but a question people lingers due to the fact that of each the other investigating and procedures helium has had to spell done this week.

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4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (barrier 19)

6yo mare

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 33: 14-7-3

Last 6: 2x2143

Win range: 1400m - 2400m

Earnings: $9,690,744

Odds: 14 / 3.75 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Superstar mare who acquitted herself precise good successful this contention past year. Steps up 1.5kg arsenic her Cox Plate tally was solid. If she had drawn a amended obstruction she would beryllium fractional the terms she is now.

5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (barrier 4)

4yo stallion

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 12-5-1-2

Last 6: 13x950

Win range: 1600m - 2500m

Earnings: $1,814,730

Odds: 51 / 10 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Hasn't deed apical cogwheel since a stunning three-year-old preparation. Should admit the journey, but would beryllium a monolithic signifier reversal connected what we person seen this clip around.

6. THE CHOSEN ONE (barrier 5)

6yo stallion

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 38: 8-6-3

Last 6: 6x3420

Win range: 1400m - 2400m

Earnings: $1,949,671

Odds: 51 / 10 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: A genuine stayer who was competitory successful 2020. Enjoys a steadfast way which helium should get connected Tuesday, and should beryllium competitory again. My question is people is does helium person that slayer punch to outclass the apical guns?

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7. DELPHI (barrier 3)

5yo stallion

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman

Jockey: Damien Oliver

Career: 10: 5-1-0

Last 6: x64210

Win range: 1609m - 2816m

Earnings: $360,841

Odds: 41 / 8.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Completely upside down successful the Caulfield Cup. Will beryllium ridden a batch quieter present implicit the 2 miles. Has genuine quality to stay, but needs to settee to beryllium competitive.

8. OCEAN BILLY (barrier 13)

6yo gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damien Thornton

Career: 32: 10-1-2

Last 6: 0x5059

Win range: 1400m - 3200m

Earnings: $326,452

Odds: 101 / 19 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Hopefully suited amended implicit the 2 miles, but I've not seen capable connected insubstantial to beryllium a top-three finisher successful this field.

9. SELINO (barrier 24)

6yo gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Ron Stewart

Career: 20: 3-5-2

Last 6: 1x0840

Win range: 2815m - 3328m

Earnings: $1,481,470

Odds: 67 / 12 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Genuine two-miler. Won a Sydney Cup, but rises 3kg connected that win. Possible top-10 finisher.

Incentivise takes retired $5 cardinal Caulfield Cup

10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (barrier 22)

4yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Denis Pagan

Jockey: Lachlan King (a)

Career: 11: 1-1-2

Last 6: 1x0090

Win range: 2500m

Earnings: $1,268,675

Odds: 81 / 15 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Form starring successful has been horrible, aft occurrence successful past year's VRC Derby. All reports connected trackwork person been good, but hasn't been capable to person into contention signifier this preparation.

11. KNIGHTS ORDER (barrier 9)

7yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Career: 20: 7-0-2

Last 6: 1x9097

Win range: 1990m - 3200m

Earnings: $467,501

Odds: 201 / 35 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Will beryllium trained and hard-fit to tally 2 miles. The question people whether there's capable people to tally against the apical support successful a Melbourne Cup.

12. PERSAN (barrier 11)

5yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Luke Currie

Career: 27: 7-5-3

Last 6: 44x373

Win range: 1600m - 2510m

Earnings: $1,404,721

Odds: 26 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Lovely adjacent build-up to this year's Melbourne Cup aft a competitory effort successful 2020. Expect him to beryllium astir the people again successful this year's mentation of the race.

13. CARIF (barrier 8)

6yo gelding

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden

Jockey: Blaike McDougall

Career: 37: 3-8-1

Last 6: 2x4747

Win range: 1850m - 3200m

Earnings: $730,285

Odds: 201 / 35 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Isn't bringing a signifier enactment into this contention that I deliberation gives him a genuine chance.

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14. MASTER OF WINE (barrier 6)

7yo gelding

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes

Jockey: Fred Kersley

Career: 28: 5-5-4

Last 6: x00030

Win range: 1400m - 2400m

Earnings: $900,309

Odds: 101 / 19 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Can premix his form, but is showing a small much dash this mentation than past. If helium gets it close connected the time tin tally a competitory race.

15. PONDUS (barrier 1)

6yo gelding

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 19: 3-7-1

Last 6: 722x54

Win range: 2002m - 2389m

Earnings: $336,109

Odds: 34 / 7 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: On the aboveground has been a small disappointing since arriving from Ireland. May admit being ridden a small quieter, and if truthful whitethorn vie for a top-10 finish.

16. GRAND PROMENADE (barrier 21)

6yo gelding

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 19: 8-4-2

Last 6: 211251

Win range: 1700m - 2600m

Earnings: $1,009,800

Odds: 20 / 4.60 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Lovely spaced-out mentation starring into this Melbourne Cup. In the hands of precise astute region trainers. Expect him to tally to the champion of his abilities connected Tuesday, which could make a top-five finish.

17. MIAMI BOUND (barrier 17)

5yo mare

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Jockey: Patrick Moloney

Career: 26: 5-0-5

Last 6: 3x0095

Win range: 1400m - 2500m

Earnings: $1,672,200

Odds: 151 / 26 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Best signifier implicit her vocation has been connected rain-effected ground, which it doesn't look she is going to get to suit connected Tuesday. A genuine stayer who won past year's Moonee Valley Cup. Track conditions volition beryllium her biggest detractor.

18. PORT GUILLAUME (barrier 23)

5yo gelding

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 10: 4-0-0

Last 6: 0x0600

Win range: 2000m - 2500m

Earnings: $308,688

Odds: 151 / 26 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Been mixing his riding tactics this mentation to fig retired what champion suits. Ridden softly volition springiness him his champion accidental of staying the 2 miles. If so, a top-10 decorativeness could past beryllium his champion imaginable if helium gets it right.

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19. SHE'S IDEEL (barrier 20)

6yo mare

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 25: 6-6-5

Last 6: x37197

Win range: 1550m - 2400m

Earnings: $1,101,075

Odds: 101 / 19 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Her past 2 starts connected the aboveground person been disappointing aft immoderate promising Sydney form. She's a question people astatine the 2 miles, and the obstruction gully yet different challenge.

20. FUTURE SCORE (barrier 15)

7yo gelding

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Matt Cumani

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Career: 22: 6-2-4

Last 6: 33x086

Win range: 1600m - 2600m

Earnings: $565,381

Odds: 301 / 46 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Had a precise bully illustration for this contention past spring, but has struggled to rekindle that form. Likes Flemington, but needs a monolithic signifier turnaround.

21. TRALEE ROSE (barrier 12)

5yo mare

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Symon Wilde

Jockey: Dean Holland

Career: 15: 6-4-2

Last 6: 4x3321

Win range: 1700m - 2800m

Earnings: $744,725

Odds: 16/4 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Genuine top-three contender. Two miles should beryllium to her benefit, and the unchangeable are successful large form. Far from the worst.

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22. FLOATING ARTIST (barrier 10)

6yo gelding

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Teodore Nugent

Career: 15: 5-2-1

Last 6: 011132

Win range: 1600m - 2406m

Earnings: $479,018

Odds: 18 / 4.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: There person been large raps connected this chap close passim the build-up to this Melbourne Cup. Stable are precise blessed to person him successful the field. If helium tin get the two-mile, with precise accordant signifier starring in, helium whitethorn surprise.

23. GREAT HOUSE (barrier 7)

5yo gelding

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 15: 5-2-3

Last 6: 751551

Win range: 1500m - 2500m

Earnings: $512,990

Odds: 26 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Winner of The Hotham and the last summons into the race. Genuine stayer. Not definite helium has the people to triumph this race, but a genuine top-10 contender.

24. SIR LUCAN (barrier 18)

4yo stallion

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Glen Boss

Career: 8: 2-1-0

Last 6: x81248

Win range: 1609m - 2615m

Earnings: $152,926

Odds: 21 / 4.80 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of midday Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: May beryllium the astonishment packet. His three-year-old European signifier brings backmost memories of erstwhile bluish hemisphere winners. Big-race rider connected board. Could beryllium successful the finish.

SIMON O'DONNELL'S MELBOURNE CUP TIP

1st Twilight Payment, 2nd Verry Elleegant, 3rd Tralee Rose, 4th Sir Lucan

How it volition play out: I deliberation Twilight Payment volition beryllium up towards the front, I don't deliberation helium volition needfully pb due to the fact that he's present carrying much weight.

Whatever does pb they volition beryllium trying to surge a batch earlier than accustomed to marque it a truly tough-run 2 mile.

It volition beryllium interesting, the tactics, due to the fact that there's not that European power present this year. There's lone 2 overseas-trained horses present successful Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission.

There volition beryllium capable section horses and section contented successful our mode of racing that tactically it could beryllium precise different, the Melbourne Cup this year.

If it becomes a acceptable sprint it brings a batch of ours into it - Verry Elleegant for example. Some of those horses with a small much brilliance, it puts them close into the contention wherever it hasn't taken the borderline disconnected them successful running, and they've inactive got thing to springiness successful that past 600m.

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