Alexander Zverev approaches the 2025 French Open with a conspicuous ease that belies the weight of expectation. In sandals before training, casually exchanging expertise with 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic after a focused session, the German top seed shows no outward sign of the immense opportunity before him. The draw has opened up significantly with the withdrawal of defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, who has won two of the last three titles at Roland Garros. Zverev, now seeded second, sees a path that looks more favorable than ever.

The Alcaraz Factor

Carlos Alcaraz's absence cannot be overstated. The Spanish sensation, who defeated Zverev in the 2024 Roland Garros final, is sidelined with a recurring elbow injury that has troubled him throughout the clay season. Alcaraz's aggressive baseline game and relentless athleticism have made him a nightmare matchup for Zverev, who has lost four of their last six encounters on clay. Without Alcaraz, the top half of the draw now lacks its most dangerous player, and Zverev's path to the final has suddenly become far more navigable. However, the German remains cautious: 'I have to believe I can beat him. Otherwise, we might as well hand him the trophy without playing the tournament,' Zverev said recently after his early exit in Rome, referring to Jannik Sinner.

The Sinner Problem

Jannik Sinner, the world No. 1, has become Zverev's persistent nemesis. The Italian has won the last six ATP 1000 events he has entered, including the recent Madrid Open where he defeated Zverev in the final. Sinner's dominance on clay is now virtually unchallenged. He possesses a devastating combination of power and precision, with a forehand that can dictate rallies and a backhand that absorbs pace effortlessly. Zverev's head-to-head record against Sinner stands at 3-9, with the German's last victory coming in 2023 at the Cincinnati Masters. On clay, it is even worse: Zverev has not beaten Sinner on the surface since 2021. The Italian's movement and consistency make him nearly unbeatable when he is in form, and he arrives in Paris as the heavy favorite to complete his Grand Slam collection—having already won the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open.

Zverev's Road to Redemption

Alexander Zverev's quest for a maiden Grand Slam title has been a long and painful journey. At 29, he has reached three major finals: the 2020 US Open, where he blew a two-set lead against Dominic Thiem and missed championship point; the 2024 French Open, losing to Alcaraz; and the 2025 Australian Open, where he fell to Sinner in a tight semifinal. Each defeat has added to the narrative that Zverev lacks the mental fortitude to close out the biggest matches. Yet his consistency at the highest level is undeniable. Since recovering from a devastating ankle injury at the 2022 French Open, Zverev has been a fixture in the latter stages of Masters events and Grand Slams. This season alone, he reached the semifinals in Miami, Monte Carlo, and Rome, and the final in Madrid. Only Sinner has stopped him. 'If you keep putting yourself in that position, the day will come,' said three-time Paris champion Mats Wilander, now a Eurosport analyst. 'Zverev is one of the biggest beneficiaries of Alcaraz's absence.'

Clay Court Credentials

Zverev's game is tailor-made for clay. His heavy topspin forehand and powerful serve are amplified on the slow surface, and his two-handed backhand is one of the best in the world. He has won five of his 23 ATP titles on clay, including the 2018 Madrid Masters and the 2021 Rome Masters. His movement, while not as fluid as Sinner's or Alcaraz's, has improved significantly under the guidance of his team. The conditions at Roland Garros suit his game: the high bounce allows him to set up his forehand, and the slower pace gives him time to construct points. Yet he must overcome the mental hurdle of facing Sinner. In their Madrid final, Zverev played some of his best tennis but still came up short. The key, he admits, is belief. 'I have to believe I can beat him,' he repeated. 'I know my game is there. It's just about executing in the big moments.'

Djokovic and the Rest of the Field

Novak Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion, remains a potential threat but is no longer the invincible force he once was. At 38, Djokovic has struggled with injuries and inconsistency this season. He failed to win a Masters title in the lead-up to Paris and lost early in Rome. While his experience and tenacity make him dangerous on any given day, he no longer possesses the physical edge that once made him nearly unbeatable over five sets. Zverev has a winning record against Djokovic (3-4 overall, but 2-1 on clay) and will not fear the Serbian. Other contenders include Casper Ruud, a two-time finalist in Paris, who has regained form with a title in Geneva, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who won Monte Carlo and is always a threat on clay. But none of these players have consistently challenged Sinner the way Zverev can—if he can find the right strategy.

The Mental Game

For Zverev, the French Open is as much a mental battle as a physical one. He has spoken openly about the pressure he feels to win a major, especially as his peers—Thiem, Medvedev, Alcaraz, Sinner—have all achieved what he has not. The German's emotional volatility on court has sometimes cost him, but he has shown signs of greater composure this season. In Madrid, he saved break points with calm aggression and served with authority. He must maintain that calm against Sinner, who feeds on opponents' frustration. The Italian will test Zverev's patience with long rallies and relentless defense. Zverev cannot afford to lose focus, as he did in the 2020 US Open final when he was two points from victory. 'I need to develop the absolute will to win,' Zverev said, 'but also keep the current lightness I feel.'

Historical Context

The French Open has a history of surprise champions and near-misses. Zverev's path resembles that of Andy Murray, who took years to break through at the majors. Murray's 2012 US Open victory came after multiple final losses, and he used his mental resilience to finally overcome Novak Djokovic. Zverev has a similar fighting spirit, but he must translate it into results. The German's best chance may come early in the tournament, where he can build rhythm against lower-ranked opponents. His first-round match is against French wildcard Benjamin Bonzi, a talented but inconsistent player who will have the home crowd's support. Zverev must navigate these early rounds without dropping sets to conserve energy for the later stages, where Sinner likely awaits.

As the tournament unfolds, all eyes will be on the bottom half of the draw, where Sinner operates. The Italian has won 27 of his last 28 matches on clay, with his only loss coming to Alcaraz in the Barcelona final. He is the clear favorite, but tennis history is full of upsets. Zverev has the weapons and the experience. He has beaten Sinner before, albeit not recently. If he can find a way to disrupt Sinner's rhythm—using his serve to set up quick points, attacking the Italian's forehand, and staying aggressive on return—he might finally break through. The door is open. Now it is up to Zverev to walk through it.

Source: MSN News