The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase of attrition, where Russian forces are paying an increasingly heavy price for meager territorial gains. According to the Ukrainian military, in the first half of 2026, Russian troops captured less than half the amount of Ukrainian territory they had taken in the same period of 2025, despite launching a large-scale offensive.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, wrote on Telegram that Russia had planned a major offensive but achieved practically none of its stated objectives. "Thanks to the active actions of our defenders, in the first half of 2026 the pace of Russian troop advance has dropped by more than half," he reported. Syrskyi also noted that Ukraine has managed to seize the initiative on certain sections of the front line.

The assessment is backed by a report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which highlighted that Russian casualties have reached staggering proportions. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, about two million soldiers have been killed, wounded, or reported missing on both sides, with 1.4 million of those on the Russian side. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties, which had typically been 2:1 or 3:1, soared to an estimated 8:1 in the first half of 2026, largely due to the devastating effectiveness of Ukrainian combat drones.

Massive losses and slowing momentum

The CSIS report further indicated that Russia's total number of dead is now estimated between 400,000 and 450,000, compared to 125,000 to 150,000 Ukrainian deaths. Monthly Russian losses are now exceeding the number of new recruits, creating a sustainability problem for the Kremlin. For the first time in years, Russian forces failed to expand their controlled territory in the spring of 2026, and in some areas even lost ground to Ukrainian counterattacks. Their advances along the more than 1,000-kilometer front line have become increasingly sluggish.

Historically, the fighting performance of the Russian military in this war is considered dismal compared to other major powers after World War II. The high casualty figures are putting immense pressure on Russia's manpower reserves and forcing the military to rely increasingly on poorly trained recruits and convicts.

Ukraine strikes deep into Russian rear

While Russian ground forces struggle, Ukraine continues to hit strategic targets deep inside Russia. In the past week alone, Ukrainian drones attacked oil refineries in Krasnodar, Saratov, Nizhnekamsk, and Omsk, causing large fires and disrupting fuel supplies. The attacks are part of a sustained campaign to cripple Russia's energy sector, which funds its war effort. On July 8, a massive drone attack targeted Moscow, with Mayor Sergey Sobyanin reporting over 430 drones heading towards the capital. Although most were intercepted, the attack demonstrated Ukraine's growing long-range strike capability.

Ukrainian drones also struck the Crimean port of Kerch, causing fires at a fuel terminal and leaving parts of the peninsula without electricity. The strikes on Crimea aim to disrupt Russian logistics and military operations in southern Ukraine. In response, Russian forces have intensified their own air attacks on Ukrainian cities, including a devastating strike on Kyiv on July 2 that killed at least 30 people and injured over 90. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it one of the heaviest attacks on the capital since the war began.

NATO pledges billions and Patriot production

Amid the intensified fighting, NATO allies gathered in Ankara for a summit that produced significant commitments for Ukraine. The alliance pledged 70 billion euros in military aid for 2026, with a commitment to maintain at least that level in 2027. US President Donald Trump personally met with Zelenskyy and offered to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot air defense missiles domestically, a move that could address Ukraine's critical shortage of interceptors against Russian ballistic missiles.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that air defense is Ukraine's most urgent need, particularly to counter Russian ballistic missiles which are difficult to shoot down without Patriot systems. European allies also announced new shipments of missiles and drones, while Germany and Ukraine signed an agreement to jointly develop a new air defense system against ballistic threats. EU Council President António Costa revealed that his team had established diplomatic contacts with Russia to explore possible peace negotiations, though no substantive talks have taken place.

Economic strain on Russia

The war is also taking a toll on Russia's economy. A fuel crisis has emerged across the country, with long lines at gas stations in several regions. The crisis stems from Ukrainian attacks on refineries, as well as export restrictions and domestic consumption pressures. Russia has reportedly begun talks with other countries about importing gasoline, an unusual step for a major oil producer. Additionally, the ruble has weakened, and inflation is rising as military spending crowds out civilian investment.

The situation on the front lines and the economic pressures at home have led to rare public criticism from within the Russian military. A video circulated showing a former soldier demanding an audience with President Vladimir Putin to denounce what he called the "exploitation and wasting" of troops by their commanders. The Kremlin acknowledged the video but dismissed it as containing "strange formulations."

Despite these challenges, Putin continues to project confidence, accusing NATO of preparing for war against Russia and vowing to achieve all of Moscow's goals in Ukraine. However, the evidence on the ground suggests that the Russian military is increasingly stretched thin, while Ukraine's innovative use of drones and Western-supplied weapons is exacting a heavy toll on the invader.

Source: MSN News